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По умолчанию Ильхам Алиев скорее Санни, чем Майкл

Wikileaks опубликовал внутренний американский анализ Ильхама Алиева.


VZCZCXRO8966PP RUEHAG RUEHDBU RUEHROV RUEHSLDE RUEHKB #0749/01 2611117ZNY SSSSS ZZHP 181117Z SEP 09FM AMEMBASSY BAKUTO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1767INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITYRUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES PRIORITYRUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 3544RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITYRUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITYRHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITYRHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITYRUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITYRHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITYRUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITYRUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 1463S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 BAKU 000749SIPDISNOFORNDEPT FOR EUR/CARC, DAS KAIDANOWE.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2034TAGS: PGOV PREL AJ RU TU AMSUBJECT: PRESIDENT ILHAM ALIYEV - MICHAEL (CORLEONE) ON THEOUTSIDE, SONNY ON THE INSIDEREF: A. BAKU 724 AND PREVIOUS¶B. BAKU 534¶C. 08 BAKU 1136¶D. BAKU 526 AND PREVIOUS¶E. BAKU 696 AND PREVIOUS¶F. BAKU 287Classified By: Charge Donald Lu, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).¶1. (S/NF) Summary: Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyevutilizes distinctly different approaches to foreign anddomestic policies. He typically devises the former withpragmatism, restraint and a helpful bias toward integrationwith the West, yet at home his policies have becomeincreasingly authoritarian and hostile to diversity ofpolitical views. This divergence of approaches, combinedwith his father's continuing omnipresence, has led someobservers to compare the Aliyevs with the fictional"Corleones" of Godfather fame, with the current presidentdescribed alternately as a mix of "Michael" and "Sonny."Either way, this Michael/Sonny dichotomy complicates ourapproach to Baku and has the unfortunate effect of framingwhat should be a strategically valuable relationship as achoice between U.S. interests and U.S. values. End Summary.¶2. (S/NF) This striking aspect of President Ilham Aliyev'sgoverning style was very neatly summed up recently by thewitty, but somewhat past-his-prime XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX (protect). Commentingon the GOAJ's harsh reaction to the YouTube "donkey video"(Reftel A), XXXXXXXXXXXX quipped to the Charge that what one mustunderstand about Aliyev, "He's not Michael Corleone, he'sSonny." To some in Baku, XXXXXXXXXXXX Godfather analogy seemsapt - capturing essential truths not only about Ilham Aliyev,but his father Heydar, who becomes by implication the "VitoCorleone" of Azerbaijan. With that in mind, this cableattempts to explain who Ilham Aliyev is and why he does whath does. Aside from XXXXXXXXXXXX analogy, it also owe much tothe appraisals of Michael and Sonny from "The GodfatherDoctrine (2008)," by John Hulsman and A. Wess Mitchell."That's my family, Kay. It's not me."---------------------------------------¶3. (C) Ilham Aliyev inherited a newly independent,resource-rich state, brought to order in the post-Soviet eraby this father, Heydar Aliyev, scarred by a catastrophic warwith Armenia that resulted in occupation of theNagorno-Karabakh enclave and seven surrounding Azerbaijaniregions. He assumed the presidency in 2003, concurrent withhis father's death, in an election marked by a lack ofcompetition and debate, at a time when Azerbaijan'sre-developed oil and gas resources were being brought on linefor export. Dogged by widespread doubts about hissuitability for leadership based on his age (then 41), lackof achievements and a "playboy" image, he oversaw the launchof a one million-barrels-per-day oil pipeline, which hasflooded official and unofficial coffers in Baku and serves asthe financial backbone of the country.¶4. (C) The President and his cohorts, who largely werecarried over from his father's administration, now seekpredictability, stability and continuity to preserve andprotect public and private fortunes. Ilham Aliyev'slandslide 2008 re-election was followed by a hastily-calledMarch 2009 referendum, which among other things removed termlimits for the President. Aliyev's cabinet has changed verylittle over the years, with few "reformers" brought in orremaining in power. The Prime Minister position is largelyceremonial and weak. Because of family connections, dynasticsuccession, the strong arming of the opposition and thecreation of an elaborate patronage/protection network, theAliyev Administration has developed an "organized crime"image in some quarters, leading some analysts to see IlhamAliyev at times in a mafia-like role."Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgment."BAKU 00000749 002 OF 004--------------------------------------------- --------¶5. (C) In their short study "The Godfather Doctrine,"Hulsman and Mitchell present brothers Sonny and MichaelCorleone from "The Godfather" as exemplars of two out ofthree schools of U.S. foreign policy thought (withconsigliere Tom Hagen representing the third.) However,there are important points they raise about the two thatapply well to Aliyev and his policies abroad and at home.Michael, they write, is a talented balancer of alliances,aware of limitations on his own power who, importantly, knowswhen something isn't personal, but only business. Sonny, bycontrast, is brash, impulsive, and puts blind faith in forceto address affronts to the Corleone family. For him,business is personal. Finally, Sonny refuses to contemplatea present or a future in which the Corleone family does notdominate New York, despite obvious and growing portents tothe contrary."This is business, not personal" - Balanced Foreign Policy--------------------------------------------- -------------¶6. (S) President Aliyev inherited from his father a clever,realistic foreign policy that he has largely maintained.With the overarching goal of maintaining and increasingAzerbaijan's independence and sovereignty, he encouragesinvolvement with NATO and Euro-Atlantic security andpolitical structures and supports a policy of westwardtransit of Azerbaijani oil and gas through non-Russianchannels. Otherwise, though, he alternates betweenassertiveness and appeasement where his powerful neighborsRussia and Iran are concerned. For example, Azerbaijanroutinely accuses Russia of supplying Armenia with weaponsand pointedly absents itself from the Collective SecurityTreaty Organization (CSTO), while participating in GUAM. Atthe same time, Aliyev constantly plays up his relations withPresident Medvedev with frequent visits and has kept open thechannels of negotiation on energy issues, concluding a smallbut symbolically important agreement with Gazprom to supplygas to Dagestan (Reftel B). He is assertive enough to defendAzerbaijan's prerogative for an independent policy, butdiscreet enough that he is in no danger of joiningSaakashvili on Moscow's hit list.¶7. (S) In foreign policy, Aliyev has also been able tomaintain generally the distinction between "business andpersonal." For all his bluster about Azerbaijan's legalright to liberate the Armenian-occupied territories by force,Aliyev has worked constructively on the Minsk Group-proposedBasic Principles and developed a reportedly good rapport withArmenian President Sargsian - in contrast to the much moreconfrontational relationship between the countries' foreignministers. Similarly, even as Aliyev regards with horror theprospect of Turkey-Armenia rapprochement ahead ofNagorno-Karabakh resolution, the President has instructedSOCAR to continue gas transit and supply talks with Turkey,and no one in Baku has dared to consider a cut in oil exportsthrough the BTC pipeline. The gas transit talks are ahardball affair to be sure, but Aliyev surely recognizes thatAzerbaijan cannot really afford a total rupture with Turkeyand certainly is not going to go so far as to foreclose onoptions out of pique while the Turkey-Armenia questionremains open."You touch my sister again and I'll kill you." - The Hardliner--------------------------------------------- -----------------¶8. (S) For all of the cool-headed calculation that generallyinfluences Aliyev's foreign policy, his domestic policies areanother matter. As Aliyev perceives a challenge to hisauthority or affronts to his family dignity, even minor ones,he and his inner circle are apt to react (or overreact), muchto the detriment of the country's democratic development andmovement toward Western alliances. The example of the cruderetaliation against the young bloggers Emin Milli and AdnanHajizade is the most recent and public example (Reftel A).Earlier, defending his decision to rescind licenses forforeign broadcasters, Aliyev expressed his anger that RadioBAKU 00000749 003 OF 004Liberty had mocked his plan to build the world's tallestflagpole in the Baku port area, demonstrating exceedinglythin skin (Reftel C).¶9. (S/NF) It is examples like these that inspired XXXXXXXXXXXXquip to the Charge about Sonny and Michael. XXXXXXXXXXXXelaborated on the point in that conversation, recalling timeswhen he was an XXXXXXXXXXXX and similarsituations arose. Heydar would never have allowed himself tobe goaded into ridiculous reactions, he said. (Note:XXXXXXXXXXXX memory on this might be a little selective, but hehas a point that the space for opinion was wider under thelast President, a view often echoed by journalists who lookback to the 1990s nostalgically. End Note.) Ilham Aliyev,in XXXXXXXXXXXX view, is not inclined to subtlety ordeliberation in his response to these kinds of issues."I don't feel I have to wipe everybody out. Just my enemies."Q----------------------------------- --------------------------¶10. (S) Aliyev takes the actions he does in order toeliminate even the semblance of risk to his politicalprominence. His goal appears to be a political environmentin which the Aliyev dynasty is unchallenged, which wasdemonstrated by the hastily organized March 2009constitutional referendum removing presidential term limits.This strangled the hopes of any and all pretenders tosuccession, including his wife (who in Azeri politics isthought of as a rival Pashayev, not an Aliyev).¶11. (S) The dissonance between Aliyev's sensible approach toforeign affairs, manifested by the cosmopolitan image hepresents to Western visitors, with his tailored suits andflawless English, and the unpleasant reality of his approachto domestic issues raises the obvious question of how thesetwo realities coexist. One explanation is that Aliyev isinsecure in domestic politics and relies heavily on theadvice of old-line Soviet-style political figures carriedforward from his father's administration, such asPresidential Chief of Staff Ramiz Mehdiyev. Alternatively,Aliyev's domestic actions are free choices made in accordancewith his instincts, with Mehdiyev and others playing the"heavy.".¶12. (S) Occasionally, Aliyev's confident tough-guy imagegives way to an impression that he is yielding on domesticissues. Outside pressure does not always fail. A recentpositive example was the outcome of the parliament'sinitiative to ram through a Russian-style law on NGOs. Inthe face of a domestic outcry - including fromgovernment-supported NGOs, the Presidential Administrationintervened to prevent the law as drafted from passing (ReftelD). Likewise, the President recently rejected a bill fromparliament that would have required foreign-based entities tohire vetted Azerbaijanis citizens as deputy directors. Thebusiness community strongly opposed this bill (Reftel E).Also, the government earlier this year released one of theprominent journalists whose imprisonment was widely believedto have been politically motivated (Reftel F)."Keep your friends close and your enemies closer."--------------------------------------------- -----¶13. (S) Comment: It is clear that Azerbaijan's futuredevelopment would better suit United States policy goals ifAliyev pursued his domestic policies in a manner thatresembled his foreign policy methods, however imperfect theymay be. A full-scale democratic conversion, however, is anunlikely outcome, and the record of presidents in this regionleaving office voluntarily is rather thin. What is desirableand perhaps achievable, however, is that Aliyev would governas a manager of alliances, viewing the political spaceoccupied by dissents as a source of ideas and a warningsystem for when policies are hurting the national interest;and ceasing to feel that he should strike hard at everycriticism that arises, or that he can do so withoutconsequences. At least this type of evolution would betterprepare Azerbaijan for the post-Ilham Aliyev era, wheneverBAKU 00000749 004 OF 004that begins.¶14. (S) Comment Continued: Here is where the Godfatheranalogy begins to break down. In Azerbaijan the role ofloyal consigliere to the father and the son is played by thelong-time head of Presidential Administration Ramiz Mehdiyev.Mehdiyev is no calm, conciliating Tom Hagen. We do not knowif President Aliyev personally ordered the many iron-fisteddomestic initiatives, although he almost certainly approvedthem, even if after-the-fact. We do see Mehdiyev'sfingerprints all over the arrests of journalists, thestifling of opposition leaders, the closure of mosques, therestrictions on the media and the general law-and-orderapproach to governance. Is he the puppet or thepuppet-master? At age 71 and often seen in frail health,this is an increasingly important question. While the ruleof 47-year old Ilham Aliyev could continue for decades, itwould be most likely without the benefit of his consigliere.Without Mehdiyev, it is not clear whom Aliyev will turn tofor help in maintaining the same firm grip on the instrumentsof power.¶15. (U) "Don Corleone, I need a man with powerful friends .. . I need all of those policians you carry around in yourpocket, like so many nickels and dimes."LU
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